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CRAIG MENSE, CFO, CNA FINANCIAL CORPORATION: As you've heard I'm
Craig Mense. I'm the Chief Financial Officer for CNA. I joined the
Company in 2004, late in 2004, and I came with the expectation that
we had an opportunity to build something very special at CNA and that
the work that Steve Lilienthal and group had done before my arrival
had set a stage for a company that could produce consistently
improving financial results. So I trust my remarks this morning will
convey the sense that CNA is a smarter, leaner, faster, more
efficient Company, that next it's a Company that does what it says
it's going to do. I think that's an important point. We do what we
say we're going to do, that's both financially and operationally and
I think what you'll see is that we continue the progress that we
discussed at last year's conference and finally, that we're well
positioned. CNA is well positioned to continue to deliver
consistently improving results and increasing shareholder value.
Now for a bit more detail on who we are and how management views our
Company. We are a leading U.S. commercial lines insurers. We are
actually the sixth largest P&C Company. We've been in business
for more than a century and we now serve about 1 million business and
professional insured. We are especially well diversified and with
respect to both our products, services and our geographic presence.
We are a global Company but we are primarily a U.S. operation. We
have significant brand identity in the commercial lines marketplace
and we have a legacy of positive loyal producer relationships. And
with that said, over the years we've realigned our [inaudible] our
focused on our distribution dates and we think that's allowed us to
produce more and better quality business.
The Company is focused on the two defining functions of insurance
operations, which is underwriting and claims payments, so we've
upgraded; we've rebuilt and we've centralized controls for these core
functions. At the same time we redesigned and upgraded our management
information and data quality. The Company really believes in and acts
on that is the lifeblood of insurance, as I am sure you would agree.
CNA's core earnings power continues to improve and that's happening
through disciplined underwriting and claims practices, really
relentless pursuit of expense management, favorable cash flow and its
related investment income. And finally, our balance sheet and our
capital position are very strong and together with our improved
earnings power are reflected in strong insurance ratings and improved
outlook, which we received from the major rating agencies. So overall
we're well-- we think we consider ourselves very well positioned to
compete successfully in the market going forward. As I said, we're
the sixth largest U.S. commercial lines Company. We're seventh if you
include the California State Worker's Comp Fund and I think the
important thing is after you get past the first two the rest of the
leaders are all clustered in the $6 to $8 billion revenue range and
we think that we built a very formidable franchise in our chosen
markets.

This is particularly so on the specialty side where we are a market
leader with the number one or two market position in our range of
industry segment and we'll talk a little bit more about our specialty
business later on in the presentation, which I think is often
overlooked, what a strong franchise we have there. In standard lines
we are a leading middle market player with a rapidly growing position
in small business and so we like our position in the market. We think
we have the scale and ability to compete with anyone, including the
two lead companies on this list with whom we've fared quite well
across our portfolio over time.
With respect to diversification of the product portfolio, we are
split about one-third specialty and two-thirds standard lines. It's a
very nice mix. We think that matches us up well against any of our
competitors. As a comparison in 2002 we were about three-quarter
standard and one-quarter specialty so we've grown in specialty
because we've seen opportunity for both improved price and terms and
we've been a better performer there over the last several years. We
think this diversification is a particular strength of the Company,
especially when you consider that both the standard and specialties
portfolios have a strong small and middle market bias. I think that's
another thing that's often overlooked relative to our specialty
business. When you get inside the pie chart themselves, you'll see
that we're also very nicely spread among the various product lines of
coverage so that we can grow or shrink as markets conditions change.
We're not overly dependent on any single product, market segment, or
any particular business in order to be successful. With respect to
geography CNA is equally diversified. We have strong positions in the
territories where we choose to compete and we closely tailor our
product strategies and appetites to match the profit potential in
each territory. So the market and product strategies are designed on
a central and regional basis with local execution.
Relative to distribution, I mentioned before that CNA has
longstanding positive relationships to our agents and brokers. We
recently completed an external survey, independent survey, of the
most profitable agencies. These are the ones that we consider to be
and have a tag of high performing and the important point is the
majority do view CNA as a preferred market in the business segments
that we've targeted for growth. And over 90% of these agencies have
indicated to us they think CNA adds significant value to their
agencies and we ourselves maintain a very steady significant and
consistent presence through those agencies.
Insurance companies do two things, as I've said before, that separate
them from any other business. We underwrite, meaning we assume risk
for money, and we pay claims. So over the past few years CNA has
demonstrated I believe a very significant level of improvement in
both of these core functions. We've managed our portfolio by shifting
our mix of business to control volatility, to increase
diversification and to optimize returns. We've also managed down our
catastrophe exposure. We've taken a very disciplined and measured,
but most importantly, profit based approach to new and renewal
business as the market began to soften, and I think this work is
evident in our disciplined approach to the marketplace you can see on
the rate and retention stats in this slide. Since the peak of the
hard market a few years ago as rates have drifted gradually downward
quarter-by-quarter our new business writings have changed, although
in 2005 or so we did see some leveling in the rate environment, in
2005. This gradual softening has allowed us to adjust our
underwriting and marketing strategies as well as our expenses on an
incremental basis.

With respect to retention you can see that in 2004 our retention
overall was in the 73% range. If you split it out between standard
and specialty, which you can't see here, actually in 2004 our
standard retention was in the high 60s as we will continue to work
through underwriting initiatives and workers compensation,
residential construction and some E&S programs and the silica
exposure, which we felt to be problematic into the future. With this
work done, retention rebounded nicely to 83% at the end of '05 and
into '06, which we view as a very normal appropriate level for this
stage of the market and for our current standard portfolio. So we're
even more pleased with our current historic and specialty lines
retentions were a bit higher than our standard lines retentions. So
in short, we are very comfortable with our book of business that we
have at CNA right now and we're holding on to it at renewal without
unnecessarily sacrificing rates. The book-- the other important point
here is the book is increasingly well segmented and priced
accordingly. We are making some very important investments in our
ability to segment risks and have matched pricing for that. We think
that's an important ability going forward.
With respect to new business, our writings and our strategies reflect
continued discipline in our changing marketplace. In the robust
conditions in '02 and '03 our new business writings were in the
vicinity of 25% of our total production and, as market conditions
softened, we brought that down to the low 20s in '04 and '05. This is
exactly what we said we would do in response to the softening market
conditions. We feathered back our new business writings because we
didn't want to reintroduce the same problems we had removed from the
book a few years ago. I would also mention that starting in '02 we
began a massive effort to cross sell so that if we sold the package
to a mid sized customer we also wanted a shot at selling the
umbrellas, specialty and international coverages. CNA in the past has
been very much of a mono line market player. In '03 we started
tracking cross sell volumes seriously and since then cross sell has
produced 1.6 billion in new business so this represents approximately
28% of our new business during that period. And again, it's an
important point because now that we are selling in a gradually
softening marketplace, we're both reducing our new business writings
as well as making sure we are selling to customers that we know. The
ability to cross sell we thin is a particular CNA advantage that many
other carriers don't have, many speak about but don't necessarily
have. And it's something that we have built into our culture so we
want to make sure that we sell as much of our product portfolio as we
want to to each and every customer. This is one of the major
advantages to our diversified portfolio and our enterprise wide
distribution strategy.
Relative to CAT risk, we think our underwriting discipline is also
very well evident in our management of catastrophe risk. We've
mitigated this risk through disciplined exposure management and
well-designed reinsurance programs. In 2005, which witnessed the most
destructive hurricane season on record, our losses had an after tax
impact of $334 million, which is really a modest percentage of our
book value and actually about roughly equal to what our earnings were
last quarter. So our losses were very manageable and well within the
tolerances and the expectations that we set for ourselves and this
was not fortuitous. It's a reflection of several years of very
deliberate reductions of our coastal exposures, a sound reinsurance
program and our highly professional claims staff on the ground. Hence
in 2006 we actually bought increased reinsurance limits. We didn't
change our retention and we again bought a second event treaty that
was very valuable to us in 2005. I would like to point out that our
initial hurricane loss estimates for '04 and '05 continue to hold,
haven't changed since our initial estimates that we published at the
time of the hurricane, and I would emphasize also that our loss
estimates were well below the external estimates generated at the
time of these losses. I think all of those speak to how well CNA has
been positioned against the coastal exposures and how well designed
the reinsurance programs have been.

With respect to financial results, CNA is improving steadily. In 2005
what I view as strong underlying results were offset by the $334
million impact of catastrophes and they were further masked by a $259
million after tax impact of several significant reinsurance
commutations. In 2006 we're on track to a very good year. Every major
driver of results, underwriting, production, claims, cash flow,
investment income and expense management is contributing to improved
earnings. Year-to-date results are very solid. Operating income
through six months was 539 million. That's a 16% increase over the
comparable 2005 period and a 42% increase over the comparable 2004
period. This comes to well within an improved ROE of 12%. Really the
sequential improvement is even more evident if you look at the
standalone second quarter results when we recorded 305 million of
operating earnings, the combined ratio and property casualty business
was 95.2%. The expense ratio was 29.9%. We had a 40% growth in core
investment income and we produced an operating ROE of 13.6%. Now
these overall trends were driven primarily by continuously improving
earnings power of the core P&C businesses that is coupled with a
wall managed and orderly run off of our non-core businesses.
In the past we've given investors who have looked for an indication
of what we could expect from the life group and you can see a
breakout here of P&C as well as life group and corporate
non-core, the expectation of that life group would swing somewhere
between a 20 million quarterly loss to 20 million gain, which I think
that you should expect. That's still our expectation. Remember that
we are very respectful of the businesses of what's in debt in these
runoff segments. We do have a large long-term care book in the life
and group segment and the corporate segment houses our CNA [REIT]
runoff as well as our asbestos pollution and mass tort exposure so
not to overemphasize the volatility inherent there but just to tell
you how respectful we are and how important we think that is to
manage those things well so we understand well what's in bed there
and are mindful of it. We have a professional group who is managing
those, managing the run up of those businesses and we are managing it
as if it is a business.
With respect to core Property and Casualty operations, our
performance, we view it as solid and it's consistently improving.
Since 2002 we shifted our mix of business towards our more profitable
segment. As is said, one of the major shifts was to change from the
specialty portfolio, which used to make up a quarter of the business
to now making up a third of the business as well as inside those
businesses where we're much less reliant on workers compensation,
which used to be a very large product mix. The $300 million drop in
premiums in 2004 reflects the pullback and problem areas that I
mentioned before in standard lines. The drop would have been more
pronounced but at the same time we were growing strongly on the more
profitable specialty side of the portfolio and we were significantly
improving overall levels of rate. This positive impact of that shift
is evident in our improving combined ratios and as shown here before
the impact of commutations and catastrophes. Really I would say it's
kind of before the impact of the significant commutations we had in
the fourth quarter of 2005. We had some smaller commutations earlier
in the year. Overall the specialty business is performing as well as
anyone out there and our standard lines business is making steady
progress against our expectations for much improved long-term
earnings power.
On the expense side, which is something that we spent significant
time on, we have significantly improved our expense ratio since 2003.
The cumulative change in dollars spend, which is better than 18%,
also speaks to the discipline around expenses. It's not just on
ratio. And expense management is something that you can expect us to
work very, very aggressively in the future. While we very much have
improved our expense competitiveness, and actually I think we've in
the second quarter of '06 we actually compare favorably to some of
our competitors, our major competitors, and that's a point that seems
to be overlooked. We're not where we want to be and you should expect
us to continue to grind down on these numbers. So this is kind of a
story that maybe will be kind of eliminating in the future but until
recently CNA's earning's power was fairly significantly dampened by
the interest expenses associated with finite reinsurance treaties. In
2005 we completed several significant commutations of those treaties
and these treaties where these commutations which where negotiated on
favorable economic terms have eliminated a significant earnings drag
and will continue to improve our financial results.
We reduced the anticipated finite interest expense by 76 million in
'06 and 64 million in '07. We modified reinsurance recoverables and
we added to our invested asset base, not to mention the fact that we
significantly improved the transparency of our balance sheet. As I
mentioned before, investment income was very much a key contributor
to improved earnings. The favorable trend that you see here is being
driven by improved period-over-period yield, especially short-term
yields and reduced interest expense as a result of the commutations
that I mentioned before.
Just as importantly though that we continued to generate positive
growth operating cash flows and add to our invested asset base. Our
book value of invested assets has increased by approximately 1.1
billion since the second quarter of '05. These-- the cost in net
investment income, contribution to earnings, the year-over-year
change in the first quarter of '06 was 29% and in the second quarter
of '06 was 40% increase, as I mentioned before.
Relative to net operating income and the results of the last several
quarters, I believe these results reflect again, as I said, our
fundamental improvement in our operations. We did have some
significant items to absorb in the third and fourth quarters of '05,
most notably the hurricane losses in the third quarter as well as in
the fourth, and in addition to our reserves and our reinsurance
runoffs in the fourth quarter of '05. The second quarter of '05 did
have a favorable tax settlement included in those numbers, so
adjusting for those events our quarterly NOI has been trending
upward. The underlying NOI has been trending upward from the $200
million range to approximately $300 million range today. That's also
reflected in the improved operating ROE and again, the drivers here
are solid performance by P&C, reduced expenses, improved
investment income and steady runoffs.
In addition to improving the operating earnings, we've also acted to
improve both the quality of the earnings and the quality of the
balance sheet. We get a number of questions about reinsurance
recoverables and I would tell you we are in a much stronger position
today than we were a few years ago relative to reinsurance
recoverables. Reinsurance recoverables today are down by more than $4
billion from 2003 and if you look at the unsecured portion, you'll
see that there unsecured recoverables are down in roughly the same
proportion even though at the same time our bad debt allowance has
actually consistently increased in relation to unsecured
recoverables. So not only are we working hard to monetize these
assets and reduce our dependence on reinsurance, but we're also
working hard to strengthen the balance sheet.
I'm sure that you're also all aware that we executed a refinancing
plan in the last month and that plan was really aimed at further
simplifying our balance sheet and improving our capital structure for
the long term. So if I can give you kind of a brief overview of what
we did there, we raised approximately 1.25 billion in early August,
500 million from the issuance of common equity and 750 in senior
debt. The uses of that, we used approximately 1 billion of those
proceeds to retire the Series H preferred stock, which we sold to
[Loews Corporation] in 2002. Now that preferred stock had a face
value of 750 million and had an 8% dividend so it was calculated on
both the face value plus the amount of undeclared and accumulated
dividends. So the proceeds in excess of the amount used to retire the
Series H will be used to fund the repayment of 250 in outstanding
notes that mature in November of this year. So turning to the impact
of the plan, the issuance of the debt and equity increased our June
30th debt to total capital ratio by a little less than 5 points to
20.5. Now I've adjusted these for the repayment, the scheduled
November repayment, so it would be a little above that at this point
in time but I think the important point to make here is that the
20.5% is at the low end of the range of our peer companies and it's
in line with our comfort level, so we're very comfortable with this
total capital, total debt to capital ratio.
Our balance sheet is very strong. You can see the total capital
remained consistent but the equity component, if you consider the
preferred as an equity component, is slightly reduced and we think
we're slightly more efficient. We also increased the float of the
stock by approximately 30% and we did in addition to eliminating a
very expensive security and it's one that would have become more
expensive with time. It was also a security that restricted our
ability to pay common dividends so overall the refinancing has
improved our capital management flexibility and broadened our
investor base.
Relative to financial ratings, the rating agencies have responded to
our improved financial performance. Over the last eighteen months
each of the four major rating agencies has changed the outlook on our
P&C to stable, some negative. We're actually eliminating all the
conversation points that we used to have in our investor calls I
think and they used to ask about what we were doing. We've finalized
what we're doing with Series H and when the rating agencies were
going to give us a stable outlook.
As I said also most importantly we're very pleased by the market's
response to our improved performance. Year-to-date you can see the
stock has begun to reflect the improved earnings fundamentals. Since
the end of '05 the change in the CNA stock is up about 6.5%. And just
so you know, the numbers on these slides are updated to September 1st
and if you did get a copy of the handout you should know that the
numbers in the handouts and that graph were actually prepared in
mid-August so this is a little more up to date. The closing price
last night would have taken us up 6.5% since January 1 and it's
compared to the S&P Insurance Index, which is down a little less
than 1%. So you can see underneath there just what the improvement
has been and EPS, operating ROE as well as price to book. So things
are headed in the right direction.
In summary, I guess you know we view CNA as a leading commercial U.S.
insurance organization and we think we're very well positioned to
compete in the market going forward. Now we have a strong capital
position. We have consistently improving financial results. We have a
strong brand identity. We think we have incorporated a very high
degree of expense discipline and we think we've also demonstrated a
very good track record of mitigating catastrophe risk. Overall we
view CNA as well diversified, we think well managed, and we are
focused on P&C, on commercial P&C. So that's who we are. I
appreciate your interest in us and I'll stop now and be happy to take
questions.
UNIDENTIFIED PARTICIPANT: [Inaudible question].
CRAIG MENSE: We have not actively I would tell you. I mean some of
those are actually fairly complicated because many of those
businesses are actually they're if you did it you had to do it
through a reinsurance transaction. You would probably add some
additional credit risk if you did it. At this point in time we are
focused on managing them ourselves and managing them well so there's
nothing active going on today in terms of trying to shed the runoff
businesses. Yes?
UNIDENTIFIED PARTICIPANT: [Inaudible question].
CRAIG MENSE: Yes. We actually-- our retention, our catastrophe, our
property CAT retention is 200 million. It was 200 in '05. It remains
200 million in '06 so we didn't change retention. In the past we had
bought a 300 million ex 2 CAT layer. This year we added another layer
of 200 million, so we now have about a 500 million over that 200
million retention and we also bought a second event cover, which we
thought-- which we bought last year for the first time so it could be
very fortuitous and I think a lot of people even though they didn't
give us a lot of credit for the timing and thought that went into
that, that second event cover in '05 actually reduced our CAT losses
by over $100 million and we were able to buy similar second event
treaty in '06. So all those things are really tied to what we're
doing relative to our own exposure management so we do just in
addition to doing probabilistic modeling and you haven't heard us
talk a lot about how the models didn't work or it did work that we
spent a bunch of time on deterministing modeling as well as
probabilistic modeling and we haven't forgotten to overlook
everything with a heavy dose of common sense. There is such a thing
as too much of a good thing and too much exposure in places so we
really-- we actually look at every 25 mile segment up and down the
coast and around in the Gulf to look at what our package of values
are there and try to corporately manage those catastrophe reinsurance
lines with what those aggregates are. I think that is something that
many of you don't hear a lot of but at the end of the day you can
spend as much time as you want looking at models but if you don't
just kind of step back and try to infuse a little bit of that with
common sense, you wouldn't necessarily do very well. I don't think
investors really appreciate the excuse that the models didn't tell us
what we need to know.
UNIDENTIFIED PARTICIPANT: [Inaudible question].
CRAIG MENSE: Well I think the big point, or what I'd point you to
look at really, is the consistent improvement and part of it is the
starting point in terms of where we come from with that standard
line. I can't really speak to how optimistic or ambitious competitors
are to what they're reporting accident into this year. I can tell you
that we think that we're reserving prudently in terms of where we see
this current accident year. Part of that is very much an expense
story. If you looked at our standard lines expense ratios relative to
competitors, you'd see they still look pretty significant and
disadvantaged in expenses and the other part of that is continuing to
improve our mix there. I think there is sort of a mix story. If you
recast standard lines we just started making an investment a year or
so ago in small business. Our small business ratings and standard are
about 10% of our business and for some of our larger competitors
could range anywhere from 25% to 50% so there's a pretty significant
upside there and there's significant upside as we're beginning to
build out our middle market competence and capacity so I think there
is an expense story there. There's a shift towards where we are in
the product portfolio and mix of business with competitors and then
after that it's a little bit more difficult to tell what's underneath
in terms of accident years combined so I would think that in the
first quarter our combined and standard were over 100. Last quarter
they actually came down over [3] points to under two ninety nine nine
so under 100 in standard and we'll continue to kind of grind down on
that portfolio, again, through those three tactics, expense,
portfolios [inaudible] and just underlying prudence and pricing.
What I want to-- not to get ahead of ourselves now but it was very
important for us to be able to-- the Series H refinancing was a
pretty significant event for us. It was very important for us to
simplify the balance sheet. We thought that was-- you know, I think
we've said that in terms of saving what I thought was important for
capital management and I thought the very first that we needed to do
was to eliminate the finite treaty, which we've faithfully done. The
second step was for a refinance of Series H, which we've now done,
and what the Series H did in addition to being very expensive and a
pretty ugly piece of paper, it also presented us from paying common
dividends. We don't have any current intentions but it is something
that we will-- we would expect to revisit in the first quarter of '07
or at the end of the year.
UNIDENTIFIED PARTICIPANT: [Inaudible question].
CRAIG MENSE: Well the cost is up; actually the cost in '06 was up
pretty significantly over '05. I don't know if I remember exactly
what it was in dollar terms but something on the order of $35 to $40
million. Those are pretax numbers in terms of costs. The percentage
increase is probably more in the 200% range in terms of what we were
paying before and we've been very diligent about making sure we are
capable of passing on those costs to primary customers so it's
property market spend in terms of where the risks really are as how
supported improved pricing.
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